Izvestiya of Saratov University.
ISSN 1819-7663 (Print)
ISSN 2542-1921 (Online)


География

Application of time series models for forecasting the global temperature anomalies

Spectral analysis of the time series for average annual values of the globally averaged surface temperature anomaly shows the presence of harmonics of the lunar nodal cycle with a period of 18.6 years, which can be used to predict the values of the series. Three models of the series were considered: autoregression AR(p), combined model of autoregression – integrated moving average ARIMA(p,d,q) and artificial neural network. It is shown that the ARIMA(4,1,4) model gives the best results for predicting the global temperature anomaly for three years.

Peculiarities of the temperature and humidity regime of the Right Bank of the Saratov region against the background of global climate trends

The temperature and humidity regime of the Right Bank is considered according to the data of four weather stations in three natural climatic periods – stabilization, the first and second waves of global warming. There is an increase in the rate of warming from one natural climatic period to another. Against the background of a progressive rise in temperatures, there is an increase in the amount of precipitation in the cold half of the year and its decrease in the warm one.

Characterizing the temperature and humidity regime of the Left Bank of the Saratov region against the background of the second wave of global warming

The article considers the temperature and humidity regime of the Left Bank of the Saratov region in various natural climatic periods of the state of the earth’s climate system – the first wave of global warming, stabilization, the second wave of global warming. It is noted that against the background of rising temperatures from one climatic period to another in the Trans-Volga region, the amount of precipitation in the cold half of the year increases. The trend in precipitation during the warm period is ambiguous.

Study of transport infrastructure on the example of assessing the frequency of one of the popular tram routes in Saratov

The paper presents a study of the transport infrastructure of the city with the main focus on public transport, in particular the tram. A sociological study was conducted that revealed the preferences of citizens in choosing the type of public transport, and the frequency of the actual movement and its correspondence with the data of a popular mobile application were also assessed.

Сравнительный медикогеографический анализ распространенности базальноклеточного рака кожи в Саратове

In the article, in a comparative analysis, for the periods from 1991 to 1998, 2015 and 2022, the issues of the territorial prevalence of basal cell skin cancer in Saratov are considered. The residential areas of patients were studied and mapped taking into account risk factors. The result of the study was an oncoecological analysis of urban landscape sites and the creation of a scheme for the active search for early forms of skin cancer.

Principles and methods for studying the structure of metageosystems for designing a pilgrimage-tourist cluster

Introduction. The article characterizes the spatio-temporal structure of metageosystems of the pilgrimage-tourist cluster “Sanaksar – Temnikov”, located in the center of the Russian Plain, in the zone of interaction of forest-steppe and forest geosystems. Materials and methods. The structuring of information within the framework of the study is based on the simultaneous use of a natural sequence of involving interrelated principles: genetic, historical, systemic, territorial-structural.

Synoptic conditions for the formation of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall over the territory of Western Siberia

The article presents the study results of thunderstorm activity with rainfall over a large territory of Western Siberia in its three regions: Northern, Central and Southern over a seven-year period from 2017 to 2023. The study revealed the most favorable synoptic conditions for the formation of thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall over a large area of Western Siberia. Cases are also reviewed and factors that need to be paid attention to when forecasting thunderstorms with squally winds are identified.

Changes in transport use in Russian urban and rural settlements of different population sizes over the period 2014–2022

The aim of the study is to examine the dynamics of transport use and transport service in urban and rural settlements of Russia with different population sizes in 2014–2022. The hypothesis of the study is that the dynamics of transport use and transport service in rural settlements repeats the dynamics of transport use and transport service in urban settlements with a certain time delay.

Intraannual and interannual changes in clouds in Ufa

The study of cloud cover and its characteristics (quantity and forms) is of practical interest, especially for large cities. Cloud cover, having a dual effect (albedo and greenhouse), is an important factor in the formation of the thermal regime in the conditions of global climate change. This article presents the results of the analysis of daily, annual and long-term changes in the cloud cover regime in the city of Ufa(Republic of Bashkortostan). Urgent data from long-term observations of clouds (1966–2020) were used for the analysis.

Unveiling the evolutionary patterns of Ecistic space in the Saratov region during the latter half of the imperial era (1800–1917)

This study delves into the profound transformation of demographic and Ecistic space within the contemporary Saratov region during the latter half of the imperial era (1800–1917). Spatial and temporal trends, as well as the driving forces behind their development, have been meticulously examined. The findings reveal a fascinating process of Ecistic space metamorphosis within the region.

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