Estimation of Response Time and Sensitivity of the Earth’s Climate System to Radiative Forcing
The Earth’s climate system (ECS) is considered as a linear system whose input is a change in the solar constant, and the output is an anomaly of the globally averaged surface temperature. As a result of the restoration, the impulse response of the system was obtained at time intervals up to 100 months. It has been shown that the response time of ECS can be characterized by a time constant of 1.305 ± 0.026 months. The sensitivity of ECS to radiative forcing is 0.320±0.074 K W-1m2, and the positive feedback coefficient is 1.07±0.25. The heat capacity of the ECS per unit area is 10.7±2.6 MJ K-1m-2 and practically coincides with the heat capacity of the atmosphere. Therefore, the reaction of ECS to a change in radiative forcing at such a time interval can be determined by atmospheric processes.
1. Будыко М. И. Тепловой баланс земной поверхности. Л. : Гидрометеоиздат, 1956. 255 с.
2. Винников К. Я. Чувствительность климата. Эмпирические исследования закономерностей современных изменений климата. Л. : Гидрометеоиздат, 1986. 224 с.
3. Douglass D. H., Clader B. D., Knox R. S. Climate sensitivity of Earth to solar irradiance: update // Paper presented at 2004 solar radiation and climate (SORCE) meeting on decade variability in the Sun and the climate. Meredith, New Hampshire, 2004. P. 1–16 [Электронный ресурс]. URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0411002 (дата обращения: 05.08.2019).
4. Vardavas I. M., Taylor F. W. Radiation and Climate. New York : Oxford University Press, 2007. 492 p.
5. Lockwood M. Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise // Proc. Royal Soc. A. 2008. Vol. 464. P. 1387–1404.
6. Bogdanov M. B., Efremova T. Yu., Katrushchenko A. V. Estimation of impulse response of Earth’s climate system at short time intervals // Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. 2012. Vol. 86. P. 51–55.
7. Богданов М. Б., Ефремова Т. Ю., Катрущенко А. В. Оценка характеристик земной климатической системы по ее реакции на изменение солнечной постоянной // Изв. Сарат. ун-та. Нов. сер. Сер. Науки о Земле. 2012. Т. 12, вып. 1. С. 3–8.
8. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / eds. T. F. Stocker [et al.]. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2013. 1535 p.
9. Дымников В. П., Лыкосов В. Н., Володин Е. М. Моделирование климата и его изменений: современные проблемы // Вестник РАН. 2012. Т. 82, № 3. С. 227–336.
10. Schwartz S. E. Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system // Journal of Geophysical Research. 2007. Vol. 112. D24S05. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008746
11. Scafetta N. Comment on ‘‘Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system’’ by S. E. Schwartz // Journal of Geophysical Research. 2008. Vol. 113. D15104. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009586
12. Schwartz S. E. Reply to comments by G. Foster et al., R. Knutti et al., and N. Scafetta on «Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system» // Journal of Geophysical Research. 2008. Vol. 113. D15105. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009872
13. Тихонов А. Н., Арсенин В. Я. Методы решения некорректных задач. М. : Наука, 1979. 142 с.
14. Тихонов А. Н., Гончарский А. В., Степанов В. В., Ягола А. Г. Регуляризирующие алгоритмы и априорная информация. М. : Наука, 1983. 200 с.
15. Гончарский А. В., Черепащук А. М., Ягола А. Г. Некорректные задачи астрофизики. М. : Наука, 1985. 352 с.
16. Frohlich C. Total solar irradiance: what have me learned from the last three cycles and the recent minimum? // Space Science Reviews. 2013. Vol. 176. P. 237–252.
17. Zhang H.-M., Huang B., Lawrimore J., Menne M., Smith T. M. NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp), Version 4.0. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7289/V5FN144H [Электронный ресурс]. URL: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/noaaglobaltemp/operational/timeseries/ (дата обращения: 15.07.2018).
18. Vose R. S., Arndt D., Banzon V. F. NOAA’s merged landocean surface temperature analysis // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2012. Vol. 93. P. 1677–1685. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00241.1
19. Монин А. С. Введение в теорию климата. Л. : Гидрометеоиздат, 1982. 246 с.