Izvestiya of Saratov University.
ISSN 1819-7663 (Print)
ISSN 2542-1921 (Online)


forecast accuracy

To the Question of the Accuracy of «Non-standard» Long-term Forecasts

A special category of long-term forecasts is considered, the object of forecasting is not the anomalies of the hydrometeorological regime (temperature, precipitation), but the dates of its sharp change. Methodological issues are raised to develop adequate methods for estimating such forecasts. The possibility of applying the method of accuracy of short-term forecasts to the justification of long-term forecasts is substantiated.